COP30: Can Brazil summit get climate negotiations back on track?

A decade on from the historic COP21 summit in Paris, world leaders are once again about to gather for the latest UN climate conference. But with the totemic 1.5°C goal already out of reach and even the less ambitious 2°C target looking like a distant dream, optimism is in short supply.

Based on countries’ current pledges, the United Nations Environment Programme estimates the world is on track for 2.3 to 2.5°C of warming this century. Climatologists say the 30th UN Conference of the Parties in Belém, Brazil, is critical to reset the trajectory of the warming planet, with oceans, forests and polar ice sheets close to tipping points. Concrete action is needed to move the world away from fossil fuels and find the estimated $1.3 trillion needed a year for poorer nations by 2030 to both slow climate change and adapt to its impacts.

“The climate debate is clearly under threat, not just from political decisions but economic, financial and trade decisions too,” says Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, global leader of climate and energy at WWF. “That makes it one of the most important COPs since 2009 and equally important as Paris – but in a very different way.”

In reality, expectations among negotiators are low. A bold multilateral agreement like the one agreed in Paris is inconceivable in today’s fractured political climate.

Last year’s COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, ended in acrimony, with wealthier nations committing to a finance package much smaller than poorer nations were hoping for. Faith in the COP process is now so low that there is growing discussion of whether the current model remains fit for purpose.

“Private finance is not showing up, countries want to backtrack on their promises to transition away from fossils and no one is delivering NDCs [national climate pledges],” says Claudio Angelo at Brazilian climate NGO Observatório do Clima. “The mood towards climate action has turned very sour.”

Rifts from trade wars and geopolitical conflicts are spilling into climate diplomacy, with the US president Donald Trump leading a backlash against climate action. Trump has withdrawn the US from the Paris Agreement and is vetoing actions to limit fossil fuels while encouraging other countries to follow suit. On 17 October, the International Maritime Organization delayed the formal approval of a plan to cut shipping emissions after Trump threatened sanctions against countries backing the plan.

Slow economic growth, the rising cost of living and anti-incumbent populism are all making it even harder for leaders to implement climate-friendly policies. “2025 is just a bad year for saving the world,” says Angelo.

With US support dissolving, Europe was expected to take a larger role in climate diplomacy, but leaders there are divided as defence spending, trade conflicts and energy costs take priority.

Even in the host nation Brazil, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – who campaigned to save the rainforest – has approved the construction of new roads in the Amazon and oil exploration in the Amazon basin with an eye on next year’s elections.

Brazil’s decision to bring COP to Belém has also been highly controversial. The first-ever Amazon COP is intended to be a reminder of the people and forests impacted by climate change and symbolic of the bold vision necessary to save the world. The environment ministry says more Indigenous people will attend COP30 than any other.

But most participants see the move as reckless. Limited hotel space has caused accommodation prices to soar and left NGOs, diplomats and businesses scrambling for tents, shipping containers and hammocks to sleep in.

With the UN limiting accreditations too, what should be the “implementation COP” could instead become the “empty COP”.

“Organisations that had eight accreditations last year got only two this time,” says Carla Cardenas at the Rights and Resources Initiative, a coalition of non-profits working to secure land rights for Indigenous people. She says there is concern the attendance of civil society groups who hold leaders to account will be limited, while oil and gas lobbies with larger budgets will be unaffected.

On the eve of the summit, there are some signs of positive momentum building. The concerns too few leaders would attend to reach quorum have been alleviated, with figures including the UK’s Keir Starmer making last-minute decisions to travel.

And as multilateralism breaks down, Brazil – with its reputation as a global bridge-builder – just might be the perfect host to hold the creaking climate diplomacy process together.

The presidency is taking a pragmatic approach to negotiations, saying there will probably be no headline-grabbing cover text announced this time. Instead of media-friendly headlines, Brazil wants to focus on implementing existing agreements.

While the world should not expect great international strides forward in Belém, there is still room for cities, regions and companies – who are increasingly taking climate action – to step up, says Thomas Hale at the University of Oxford. “Coalitions of the willing”, bands of states who come together to announce environmental initiatives, can still make a significant impact.

“Blockers like the US can sit on the sidelines, but that’s not where the groundswell of action is and it’s not where the real COP action will be,” he says. “We aren’t going to see an international decision at COP that will move us forward radically but it can still provide the framework for a lot of positive initiatives to arise.”