Eating More Red Meat Could Increase Type 2 Diabetes Risk

The holiday season is upon us, and for many people, meat is the centerpiece of celebratory meals. But eating less of it may do more when it comes to reducing the risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D) and lowering the mortality risk for those who already have the disease.

“High red meat intake has been associated with many health risks, including T2D, coronary heart disease, some types of cancer, and overall mortality,” Walter C. Willett, MD, DrPH, professor of epidemiology and nutrition at Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health in Boston, told Medscape Medical News. “The high amounts of saturated fat and cholesterol with minimal amounts of polyunsaturated fat very likely contribute to risk, but high amounts of heme iron, precursors of trimethylamine N-oxide, and other factors may also contribute to adverse outcomes.”

“Processed red meat can add further to some of these risks,” said Willett, a coauthor of a recent federated meta-analysis that included close to two million people from 20 countries. In particular, researchers found that the consumption of red meat and processed meat was associated with increased risks for T2D development and mortality — and even poultry was implicated as a possible risk booster.

Some researchers question the evidence linking red and processed meat to multiple health conditions. But, said Willet, “the combination of randomized trials with risk factors as outcomes and long epidemiologic studies support an adverse causal effect of red meat on cardiometabolic disease, especially when compared with healthy plant sources of protein such as nuts, legumes, and soy foods.” 

How Much Is Too Much?

If red meat and processed meat do raise the risk for diabetes, is it necessary to abstain from these foods? Probably not; although recommended quantities may differ in different studies, patients should be aware of the potential consequences of eating them.

“In our study, regular consumption of each additional 50 grams of processed meat a day — equivalent to two slices of ham or bacon, or one small sausage — was associated with a 15% higher risk of developing T2D in the next 10 years,” Nicholas Wareham, of the University of Cambridge, Cambridge, England, principal author of the federated meta-analysis, told Medscape Medical News. “The impact of unprocessed red meat was less as we found that consumption of each additional 100 grams of unprocessed red meat a day was associated with a 10% higher risk.”

Another recent study found that, overall, reducing the consumption of processed meat by around one third could prevent more than 350,000 cases of diabetes in the United States over 10 years. On an individual level, that would mean cutting out around 10 slices of bacon a week, according to the authors.

Reducing unprocessed red meat intake alone by 30% — that is, eating around one less quarter-pound beef burger a week — resulted in more than 732,000 fewer diabetes cases, the study found. The finding that more disease cases were prevented by reducing unprocessed red meat compared with processed meat was due in part to the higher average daily intake of processed vs unprocessed meat (47 g/day vs 29 g/day, respectively), the authors suggested.

An earlier study, for which Willett was principal investigator, found a dose response between red meat consumption and diabetes risk, such that people who ate as few as two servings of red meat per week had an increased risk of developing T2D compared with those who ate fewer servings, and the risk increased with greater consumption.

As for poultry, “Chicken, turkey, or duck are often considered to be an alternative to processed meat or unprocessed red meat, but few studies have examined the association between poultry consumption and T2D compared to other meats,” Wareham said. The federated meta-analysis found that “habitual consumption of each additional 100 grams of poultry a day was associated with an 8% higher T2D risk.”

However, he added, “the link remains uncertain when further analyses were conducted to test the findings under different scenarios, and it needs to be investigated further.”

Indeed, researchers agree that all findings regarding meat and poultry links to T2D merit additional research as most of the studies, like those mentioned here, are observational and cannot prove cause and effect. Nevertheless, the published studies seem to point in the same direction, and Wareham noted that the federated meta-analysis also included 18 studies with previously unpublished data.

Organic, Grass-Fed, Food Prep Benefits?

Is there a risk difference if the meat is “organic?” There is little research in this regard, so the answer is possibly. One large prospective study found that the consumption of organic food, overall, was inversely associated with the risk for T2D. But again, the authors called for further studies to confirm the observations.

An earlier study comparing the nutritional composition of organic and conventional beef meat sold at retail found that organic beef had 17% less cholesterol, 32% less fat, 16% less fatty acids, 24% less monounsaturated fatty acids, 170% more alpha-linolenic acid, 24% more alpha-tocopherol, 53% more beta-carotene, 34% more coenzyme Q10, and 72% more taurine than conventional beef. The authors concluded, “Retail organic beef had a higher nutritional value than retail conventional beef, which resulted from better-balanced lipid and bioactive compound contents.” That does not necessarily mean that organic beef is less likely to contribute to T2D risk, but it’s something to keep in mind.

Mireille Serlie, MD, PhD, a professor of internal medicine (endocrinology) at Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, told Medscape Medical News that “fat composition of the meat reflects the dietary intake of the animal. Therefore, grass-fed beef might be healthier than grain-fed beef, whether it is organic or not.” 

A recent modelling study seems to support that view, though it addresses potential health benefits, not diabetes risk. Researchers predicted fatty acid supply from three consumption scenarios: (1) average UK population National Diet and Nutrition Survey red meat consumption (EAT-Lancet report (

The results indicated that individuals would receive more of the beneficial fatty acids (especially the essential omega-3, alpha-linolenic acid) from pasture-fed beef, produced either organically or conventionally.

Does the way meat is prepared make a difference in risk? It “probably doesn’t alter the health impacts appreciably,” Willett said. “We have had concerns that the carcinogens created by cooking red meat at a high temperature, such as grilling, may increase cancer risk, but this has been difficult to document in human studies.” 

Serlie suggests substituting vegetable oil for butter during preparation to reduce saturated fat consumption. “A reduction of saturated fat intake in general is part of a healthy diet,” she said. “Based on studies in animals and humans, high saturated fat intake can induce insulin resistance, promote increased food intake, and induce inflammation. These effects can have negative health consequences in the long term.”

Shift to Plant-Based Protein

Recent research seems to support a shift to plant-based protein for optimal health. “We have good evidence that shifting to a diet that emphasizes healthy plant foods such as nuts, beans, and soy food instead of red meat will have important health benefits,” Willett said. “If someone would still like to consume red meat, about one serving/week is a good target, but each step in this direction can be helpful.” 

In Willett’s 2023 study, substituting one serving daily of nuts and legumes for total daily red meat consumption led to a 30% lower risk for T2D; substituting for processed red meat led to a 41% lower risk; and substituting for unprocessed red meat led to a 29% reduction in T2D risk. Substituting one daily serving of dairy for total, processed, or unprocessed red meat was also associated with a significantly lower risk for T2D.

The shift away from meat to more plant-based protein figured prominently in discussions held at the 2025 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee, the latest (and final) meeting held in October. The committee’s scientific report, which will serve as the basis for the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2025-2030, is being finalized and will be published online later this year, along with a public comment period, according to a spokesperson from the US Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion.

Not surprisingly, industry coverage of the advisory committee meetings and findings shows that beef, pork, and potato interests are pushing back. What industry objections will mean for the final guidelines remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, advocates have said the move away from meat, in addition to potentially reducing risks for T2D and other health conditions, will be better for the planet. Stay tuned.

Wareham, Willett, and Serliedeclared no conflicts of interest.

Marilynn Larkin, MA, is an award-winning medical writer and editor whose work has appeared in numerous publications, including Medscape Medical News and its sister publication MDedge, The Lancet (where she was a contributing editor), and Reuters Health.