Firearm Homicides a Major Public Health Challenge in Mexico

Mexico is among the countries with the highest firearm mortality rates. Although these rates decreased slightly between 2018 and 2022, firearm mortality remains a major public health challenge for Mexico that requires the implementation of multiple strategies. Firearms have a negative impact on all sectors of the population, especially young men between the ages of 20 and 39 years, who are the main victims of homicide. These are some of the conclusions of a study conducted by a team of experts from the Institute for the Prevention of Gun Injuries at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, Michigan; the Medical College of Wisconsin in Milwaukee, Michigan; and the University of Colorado School of Medicine in Aurora, Colorado.

The research group examined data from 188,397 firearm-related deaths from the records of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography of Mexico (INEGI). The researchers used descriptive statistical tools to measure percentage changes in trends from 2015 to 2022, categorizing by sex, population group, and incident location and state.

After analyzing the epidemiological trends, the research team found that firearm mortality increased by 88.2% between 2015 and 2018, although it experienced a slight decrease (16.7%) between the latter year and 2022. Throughout the analyzed period, homicides accounted for 92.2% of firearm deaths. The highest percentage increase (62.7%) in homicides occurred between 2015, when there were 10.37 per 100,000 inhabitants, and 2022, when there were 16.87 per 100,000 inhabitants.

The research team observed that the victims were primarily men, although rates increased to a greater extent among women (99.5% vs 53.3%). Nearly a third of these victims were between ages 20 and 29 years (31.9%), although rates were higher among people aged 30-39 years (35.66 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants).

In the United States, suicides accounted for 56.1% of firearm deaths in 2022, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. But in Mexico, homicides represent the greatest cause of firearm deaths.

Other relevant data from the research show that most firearm deaths occurred in five states: Colima, Baja California, Zacatecas, Chihuahua, and Guanajuato. Deaths from this cause were mainly recorded in urban areas, where they increased by 76.8%-86.8% during the analyzed period. When reviewing deaths by location, 67.3% occurred on the streets or other public spaces, while the percentage of incidents (suicides, intentional, and unintentional homicides) within homes increased by 14%-17.7% during the same 2015-2022 period.

Updated Analysis

“Other studies have analyzed deaths from this cause in Mexico, but they only include data until 2015, so we decided to update the analysis to extend it to 2022. We wanted to see what kind of mortality exists in this country, which is the main recipient of firearms from the United States,” Eugenio Weigend Vargas, PhD, researcher at the Institute for the Prevention of Gun Injuries at the University of Michigan and lead author of the research, told the Medscape Spanish edition.

“One of our most relevant findings was that even though the firearm mortality rate is higher among young people between ages 20 and 39 years, the increase in mortality observed in the younger population group aged 10-19 years stands out. In this group, it is already the leading cause of deaths in Mexico. This, from a public health perspective, should raise red flags,” added Weigend Vargas.

The results provide updated data to understand firearm mortality in Mexico, said Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez, PhD, professor of community health sciences at the University of California, Los Angeles School of Public Health, who did not participate in the study. Yet, much of the study is based on the total number of deaths and percentage changes over time, he added.

“When analyzing this issue from a public health perspective, it is more important to calculate mortality rates by age to know how many homicides there are relative to the living population. This approach allows us to measure the risk that a person has of being exposed to a type of event, in this case a fatal one, and not just in terms of absolute numbers,” said Beltrán-Sánchez.

The expert, who has analyzed the health and aging dynamics of populations in Latin American countries, observed that even though the study shows a slight decrease in the number of firearm homicides in recent years, it is not possible to determine exactly whether it suggests that mortality from this cause has plateaued or that the population has changed. 

A Regional Perspective

In a previous study, Weigend Vargas and his collaborators found that the increase in homicide rates in Central American and Caribbean countries (ie, from 8.38 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2004 to 17.55 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2012) coincides with the increase in the manufacture and export of firearms in the United States, which rose from 4.99 million to 13.12 million during the same period.

In his current study, he observed that conflicts between organized crime groups, along with gun trafficking from the United States to Mexico and other Latin American countries, play an important role as triggers for violence in the region.

The researcher believes that this type of violence should not be viewed in isolation but as part of a regional trend. “Since 2004, the production and sale of assault weapons, such as AR-15 rifles, has been allowed in the United States, and this development is linked to the increase in violence not only in Mexico but also throughout the region. I think this factor, which is not the only one, has been decisive in the problem that is experienced in this country, because when firearms are introduced into any type of conflict, whether domestic violence, school bullying, suicide attempts, or organized crime operations, the lethality rate will increase,” said Weigend Vargas.

Beltrán-Sánchez agreed that access to firearms, especially high-caliber ones, influences the increase in homicides in Mexico and other Latin American countries, although he ruled it out as a fundamental factor. This issue should be addressed from a public health perspective and not just as a matter of justice and security, he said. It affects young people in the prime of their working and reproductive lives, with repercussions on the quality and life expectancy of the entire population.

“If this were not the case, we would not expect to find mortality levels [from firearms] comparable to those of other typical causes of death, such as chronic degenerative diseases. The fact that these homicides reach such high percentages is because they are already impacting the entire population, as they already constitute a public health problem,” said Beltrán-Sánchez.

In a study focused on quantifying the effects of violence in Mexico, Beltrán-Sánchez found that inequality in life expectancy in young adults decreased by more than half a year between 1995 and 2005, but a decade later, that progress stagnated and barely reached a reduction of two months. The factor that contributed most to this stagnation was the increase in homicide mortality (from all causes), which was concentrated in the population aged 15-50 years.

More Data Needed

Beltrán-Sánchez, an expert in health and mortality patterns, founder of the Latin American Mortality Database, added that in addition to considering these direct and visible effects of homicidal violence, it is also necessary to consider the indirect impact of homicidal violence on the population. This question has not received sufficient attention, he said. Mental health disorders such as stress, feelings of isolation, and depression among people experiencing extreme violence are associated with the use of these weapons.

Likewise, the specialist emphasized that the increase in depression levels among people exposed to violence with weapons can lead to an increase in suicidal behaviors, abusive consumption of alcohol or other substances, and problems of family disintegration. Most homicides affect young people, many of whom are already parents, and thus create thousands of orphans. “We must consider the impact this situation will have on future generations,” said Beltrán-Sánchez.

On the other hand, Weigend Vargas — who acknowledged that the INEGI databases do not include information about the exact locations of the homicides, the relationship of the victims with the perpetrators, or the owners of the weapon used — suggests collecting as much information as possible, considering these crimes as a public health problem, and implementing measures that have been successful in other countries, such as taking a regional, extranational approach.

For example, in Mexico, American measures like the Extreme Risk Protection Order could be applied, he said. This is an order issued by a civil court in the United States through which access to firearms is restricted to people with dangerous behaviors or who are at high risk of harming themselves or others.

“We call on the authorities of Mexico to improve databases and address this issue from a public health perspective but also on those of the United States, where the main cause of death for young people is firearms, because these are already causing young people to be the main affected group in Mexico as well. It is necessary to include these types of international effects in the public policy discussion,” said Weigend Vargas.

Weigend Vargas and Beltrán-Sánchez have declared having no relevant financial relationships. 

This story was translated from the Medscape Spanish edition using several editorial tools, including AI, as part of the process. Human editors reviewed this content before publication.