Global Obesity Crisis Worsening, Experts Warn of Urgency

If no immediate action is taken, more than half of the world’s adults and one third of children and adolescents will be overweight or obese by 2050. This projection comes from an international research group analyzing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 published in The Lancet.

The GBD 2021 Adolescent BMI Collaborators concluded that global efforts over the past three decades have failed to adequately address the obesity crisis in children and adolescents. Consequently, the number of overweight and obese adults (≥ 25 years) and children/adolescents (5-24 years) surged from 731 million and 198 million in 1990 to 2.11 billion and 493 million in 2021, respectively.

Without effective interventions, the number of affected young people is expected to rise sharply, reaching 360 million by 2050, an increase of 186 million from 2021.

Societal Failure

Study author Emmanuela Gakidou, PhD, professor of health metrics sciences and senior director of organizational development and training at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington in Seattle, United States, described the obesity epidemic as “a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure.”

She urged governments and public health officials to use country-specific data to identify high-risk populations and implement targeted preventive measures, particularly for individuals currently classified as overweight.

In the study, obesity and overweight were determined using body mass index (BMI), with thresholds of 25-30 for overweight and ≥ 30 for obesity in adults. In children and adolescents, classifications followed the International Obesity Task Force criteria, which use age- and sex-specific reference curves to define obesity.

Between 1990 and 2021, the global overweight and obesity prevalence rose sharply, from 8.8% to 18.1% in children and younger adolescents and from 9.9% to 20.3% in older adolescents. In 2021, 493 million young people were affected. Childhood and adolescent obesity tripled from 2% to 7%, affecting 174 million youth.

Obesity Surpassing Overweight

The study predicts that by 2050, the number of overweight children and adolescents will stabilize, primarily because many will transition to obesity. Among boys aged 5-14 years, obesity is expected to surpass the overweight status.

The authors highlighted that younger generations are gaining weight more rapidly and developing obesity earlier than previous generations. This trend raises concerns regarding early onset complications, including type 2 diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and various cancers.

For example, in high-income nations, approximately 7% of men born in the 1960s were obese by the age of 25 years. Among those born in the 1990s, this figure increased to 16%, and for those born in 2015, projections estimate that it will reach 25%.

Obesity Need Not Be the Norm

Despite these concerning trends, there is still hope. Immediate interventions could significantly reduce the number of affected children and adolescents by 2050.

“If we act now, we can prevent obesity from becoming the norm among children and adolescents worldwide,” said lead study author Jessica Kerr, PhD, research fellow in adolescent population health and obesity epidemiology, who holds joint appointments at the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute in Melbourne, Australia, and the University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.

Many children and adolescents in Europe and South Asia could benefit from targeted preventive efforts. Meanwhile, large groups — particularly girls in North America, Oceania, North Africa, and Latin America — are at a high risk for obesity, necessitating urgent intervention.

Regional Differences

The study revealed significant regional disparities in the prevalence of overweight and obesity. The most dramatic increases have occurred in Oceania, North Africa, and the Middle East, where more than 60% of men and over 70% of women are obese.

In the United States, the leader among industrialized nations, the obesity rate stands at 42% for men and 46% for women.

If current trends persist, global adult obesity rates will rise from 43.4% in 2021 to 57.4% for men and from 46.7% to 60.3% for women by 2050. The most substantial increases are projected for Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

“Obesity rates in sub-Saharan Africa are rising rapidly,” explained coauthor Awoke Misganaw Temesgen, PhD, also from IHME. “By 2050, 522 million adults and over 200 million young people are expected to be overweight or obese.” This trend places immense strain on already overburdened healthcare systems and poses significant public health challenges.

In Germany, an estimated 1.4 million boys (5-14 years) are expected to be overweight or obese by 2050, along with 1.3 million girls in the same age group.

Immediate Action Needed

The authors stress the urgent need for action plans over the next 5 years to curb the rising overweight and obesity rates. Strategies include regulating ultraprocessed foods and promoting healthy diets and physical activity in schools.

“Now is not the time for ‘business as usual.’ Many countries have only a small window of opportunity to prevent more individuals from transitioning from overweight to obesity,” Kerr emphasized.

This story was translated from Medscape’s German edition using several editorial tools, including AI, as part of the process. Human editors reviewed this content before publication.