HCC-Related Mortality: New Leading Causes Predicted

TOPLINE:

Age-standardized mortality rates for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the United States are expected to rise from 5.03 per 100,000 persons in 2022 to 6.39 per 100,000 persons by 2040. A lcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) will likely become the leading cause of HCC-related mortality by 2026, and metabolic dysfunction–associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is projected to become the second leading cause by 2032, a new analysis found. 

METHODOLOGY:

• HCC accounts for 75%-85% of primary liver cancers and most liver cancer deaths. Researchers have observed an upward trend in the incidence of and mortality from HCC in the past two decades.
• This cross-sectional study analyzed 188,280 HCC-related deaths among adults aged 25 and older to determine trends in mortality rates and project age-standardized mortality rates through 2040. Data came from the National Vital Statistics System database from 2006 to 2022.
• Researchers stratified mortality data by etiology of liver disease (ALD, hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, and MASLD), age groups (25-64 or 65 and older years), sex, and race/ethnicity.
• Demographic data showed that 77.4% of deaths occurred in men, 55.6% in individuals aged 65 years or older, and 62.3% in White individuals.

TAKEAWAY:

• Overall, the age-standardized mortality rate for HCC-related deaths increased from 3.65 per 100,000 persons in 2006 to 5.03 in 2022 and was projected to increase to 6.39 per 100,000 persons by 2040.
• Sex- and age-related disparities were substantial. Men had much higher rates of HCC-related mortality than women (8.15 vs 2.33 per 100,000 persons), with a projected rate among men of 9.78 per 100,000 persons by 2040. HCC-related mortality rates for people aged 65 years or older were 10 times higher than for those aged 25-64 years (18.37 vs 1.79 per 100,000 persons) in 2022 and was projected to reach 32.81 per 100,000 persons by 2040 in the older group.
• Although hepatitis C virus–related deaths were projected to decline from 0.69 to 0.03 per 100,000 persons by 2034, ALD- and MASLD-related deaths showed increasing trends, with both projected to become the two leading causes of HCC-related mortality in the next few years.
• Racial disparities were also evident. By 2040, the American Indian/Alaska Native population showed the highest increase in projected HCC-related mortality rates, which went from 5.46 per 100,000 persons in 2006 to a project increase to 14.71 per 100,000 persons.

IN PRACTICE:

“HCC mortality was projected to continue increasing in the US, primarily due to rising rates of deaths attributable to ALD and MASLD,” the authors wrote. 

This “study highlights the importance of addressing these conditions to decrease the burden of liver disease and liver disease mortality in the future,” Emad Qayed, MD, MPH, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, wrote in an accompanying editorial.

SOURCE:

The study was led by Sikai Qiu, MM, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, China, and was published online in JAMA Network Open.

LIMITATIONS:

The National Vital Statistics System database used in this study captured only mortality data without access to detailed clinical records or individual medical histories. Researchers could not analyze socioeconomic factors or individual-level risk factors owing to data anonymization requirements. Additionally, the inclusion of the COVID-19 pandemic period could have influenced observed trends and reliability of future projections.

DISCLOSURES:

This study was supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China. Several authors reported receiving consulting fees, speaking fees, or research support from various sources.

This article was created using several editorial tools, including AI, as part of the process. Human editors reviewed this content before publication.