Heat-Related Deaths in Europe Will Skyrocket by 2099

Climate change affects the life expectancy of humans. A study published in Nature Medicine analyzed how rising temperatures could increase premature deaths, highlighting the impact of climate change on life expectancy. The researchers examined three climate scenarios, revealing outcomes that exacerbate existing extremes.

In the scenario with the highest temperature increase, premature deaths are expected to rise by 50% but only if no adaptation measures are implemented.

Mortality Trends

Pierre Masselot, PhD, a statistician and environmental epidemiologist at the Department of Public Health, Environments and Society at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom, and colleagues investigated how cold- and heat-related premature deaths will evolve as climate change progresses. This study focused on 854 cities in 30 European countries.

The researchers analyzed potential premature deaths under three different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) without any adaptation. They also evaluated scenarios with varying levels of adaptation, reducing heat-related death risks by 10%, 50%, and 90% for each of the three pathways.

The three SSP scenarios examined were as follows:

• SSP1-2.6: This corresponds to a sustainable world in which global warming peaks at 1.5 °C.
• SSP2-4.5: This represents slow progress toward sustainability, with global warming likely to remain below 3 °C.
• SSP3-7.0: This corresponds to a world with increased regional rivalries, where sustainability and environmental concerns have low priority, which is likely to lead to global warming close to or above 4 °C.

Without adaptation measures, the scenario with the highest temperature increase (SSP3-7.0) predicted a total of 2,345,410 (2.35 million) temperature-related deaths from 2015 to 2099, a 50% increase compared to current figures. However, all scenarios and adaptation options come with significant uncertainties.

Urgency to Act

“The findings are consistent with previous studies, showing that heat-related mortality is more prevalent in southern Europe, while cold-related deaths dominate in the north,” said Martin Röösli, PhD, head of the Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute in Basel, Switzerland, in a discussion with the Science Media Center.

As global warming increases, heat-related mortality increases and cold-related mortality decreases. Röösli explained that mitigation and adaptation measures can reduce both effects. From a global perspective, the increase in heat-related mortality is dominant, while northern European countries benefit from climate change in terms of temperature-related mortality. He emphasized that “climate change is therefore exacerbating existing global inequalities.”

Erich Markus Fischer, PhD, senior researcher of climate physics at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, Switzerland, attested the study for its meticulous methodology, careful documentation of uncertainties, and thorough discussion of limitations. He noted that the study is “more representative geographically than previous research” but is limited to Europe.

“The current study highlights the urgency of comprehensive measures for both climate protection and climate adaptation. Despite the high inaccuracy of some parameters, the overall picture of the statistical models indicates that heat-related deaths in Europe will likely surpass cold-related deaths this century, particularly affecting southern Europe,” Barbara Schumann, PhD, senior lecturer at the Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Linnaeus University, Växjö, Sweden, emphasized. This study addresses only temperature-related mortality, not nonfatal illnesses or injuries, meaning it captures just “the tip of the iceberg,” she said.

Adaptation Measures

Alina Herrmann, MD, PhD, from the Heidelberg Institute for Global Health, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany, noted that fewer cold deaths could be seen as a “positive effect of climate change.” However, she cautioned that even in the SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios, heat-related deaths will increase by 2050. Heat adaptation is crucial. “There are already existing protective measures in extreme cold, for example warm buses for homeless people. At the same time, we need appropriate protective measures in extreme heat.”

Fischer highlighted the study’s approach of using 10%, 50%, and 90% adaptation scenarios as a strength. Achieving 50% adaptation would require “very comprehensive” measures and would not only include heat warnings but massive interventions in behavior, cooling, nursing and elderly care, he noted.

Schumann considers the SSP3-7.0 scenario, the most severe of those examined, to be “entirely realistic,” necessitating immediate and robust adaptation measures.

“These measures take time because they must be implemented at all levels of society and across sector boundaries. These include early warning systems, adaptation of the health system, and long-term urban planning. However, all of this has been known for a long time,” Schumann stated.

This story was translated from Medscape’s German edition using several editorial tools, including AI, as part of the process. Human editors reviewed this content before publication.