How Ultra-Processed Foods Affect Risk

• Research shows that around 70% of the food supply chain in the United States consists of ultra-processed foods.
• A recent study shows that around one in 10 new cases of type 2 diabetes and around 3% of new cardiovascular disease cases could be linked back to sugary drinks.
• A 2024 study found an association between eating processed red meats and an increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes.
• Another study from 2024 found that replacing ultra-processed foods in your diet can help reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes.

Research published in Nature Communications in 2023 estimates that around 70% of the food supply chain in the U.S. consists of ultra-processed foods.

While the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) are working together to officially define ultra-processed foods, many other experts and agencies commonly use the definition set out by NOVA.

NOVA defines ultra-processed foods as those that contain “formulations of ingredients, mostly of exclusive industrial use, typically created by a series of industrial techniques and processes.”

Another way of thinking about ultra-processed foods is foods that contain ingredients that are generally not found in a kitchen cupboard, such as types of additives, emulsifiers, or stabilizers.

Researchers have been studying the health risks of consuming ultra-processed foods. A study published in Nutrition & Metabolism in November 2025 looked at a potential association between ultra-processed foods and prediabetes in young adults.

The researchers from the Keck School of Medicine of USC studied a group of 85 young adults ages 17 to 22 over a 4-year period. They found that an increased intake of ultra-processed foods was linked to a higher risk of prediabetes.

Yiping Li, one of the study authors, and currently a doctoral researcher in quantitative biomedical sciences at Dartmouth College, stated in a press release that: “These findings indicate that ultra-processed food consumption increases the risk for pre-diabetes and type 2 diabetes among young adults—and that limiting consumption of those foods can help prevent disease.”

A study published in Nature Medicine in January 2025 charted the metabolic and cardiovascular complications that may be associated with sugar-sweetened beverages, like soda.

The researchers also estimated that sugary drinks were linked to 80,278 deaths from type 2 diabetes and 257,962 deaths from cardiovascular disease.

Maddie Gallivan, a registered dietitian who was not involved in the study, said that “there is really no benefit to drinking sugary drinks.”

She advised that swapping sugary drinks for healthier options can make a difference to sugar intake while also offering additional benefits like probiotics and polyphenols.

Some health swaps include:

Research published in the Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology in September 2024 found that eating red meat and processed meat can lead to a higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes.

This research found that people who ate around 50 grams (g) of processed meat (the equivalent of 2 slices of ham) each day were at a 15% higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes within the next 10 years.

Eating 100 g of unprocessed red meat (the equivalent of a small steak) every day can increase the risk by 10%.

There are various reasons these meats may increase the risk of type 2 diabetes. Silvana Obici, MD, Chief of the Division of Endocrinology at Stony Brook Medicine, not involved in this study, cautioned that statistical association does not necessarily imply causation.

“Also, the cooking methods such as frying in fat/oil or charring meats at high temperature can generate byproducts well known to affect glucose metabolism (e.g., advanced glycation end products),” she added.

Jennifer Pallian, a registered dietitian and owner of Foodess, not involved in the study, noted that there are various substitutes for red and processed meats that may help reduce your risk of type 2 diabetes.

These substitutes include plant-based proteins and fish, especially salmon, mackerel, and sardines.

A study published in The Lancet Regional Health: Europe in November 2024 examined the relationship between the degree of food processing and type 2 diabetes risk. This included which ultra-processed foods were the highest risk.

The researchers of this study found that for every 10% increase in the amount of ultra-processed foods in your diet, your risk of type 2 diabetes increases by 17%.

The highest risk groups of ultra-processed foods were:

• artificially-sweetened beverages
• savory snacks
• ready meals
• animal-based products, such as processed meats.

Nichola Ludlam-Raine, a specialist dietitian and the author of How Not to Eat Ultra-Processed, who was not involved in the study, noted that “replacing UPFs with whole, minimally processed foods can help with weight management, stabilize blood sugar levels, improve insulin sensitivity, and provide more nutrients and fiber, which are protective against type 2 diabetes.”

Ludlam-Raine also stated that small swaps are the way to go. She gave the following tips for swapping ultra-processed foods for healthier options:

• replace sugary snacks with whole fruits or nuts
• instead of sweetened yogurt, opt for plain yogurt and add your own fruit and honey for sweetness
• cooking from scratch is a great way to limit ultra-processed foods in your diet.