NT-proBNP May Predict Atrial Fibrillation Risk Early

TOPLINE:

Elevated levels of N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), a key biomarker for diagnosing heart failure, show a nearly fourfold increased risk for atrial fibrillation (AF) in at-risk individuals. The utility of this biomarker was particularly evident in older adults and when serum-based measurements were used.

METHODOLOGY:

• Researchers conducted a meta-analysis of prospective cohort, case-cohort, or nested case-control studies to examine the association between NT-proBNP and the incidence of AF.
• They also explored the potential of NT-proBNP in improving risk prediction models for AF.
• Overall, 136,089 adults were included from 16 cohorts, and 8017 cases of incident AF were reported over a median follow-up of 4-20 years.
• Most of the included cohorts were from Europe (n = 12), followed by America (n = 3) and Asia (n = 1).
• The accuracy of the risk prediction models was evaluated using C-indexes, with values in the range of 0.50-0.70, low accuracy; 0.70-0.90, moderate accuracy; and > 0.90, high accuracy.

TAKEAWAY:

• Elevated NT-proBNP levels showed a strong association with the risk for AF, with individuals in the highest quintile of NT-proBNP facing a 3.84-fold higher risk for incident AF (pooled relative risk [RR], 3.84; 95% CI, 3.03-4.87) than those in the lowest quintile.
• The risk increased by 9% for each 10 pg/mL increase in NT-proBNP (RR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.04-1.14), with a significant nonlinear dose-response association found between NT-proBNP and the risk for AF (P for nonlinearity
• The association was stronger in the subgroups of older adults and when the biomarker was measured in serum samples.
• The addition of NT-proBNP to traditional risk prediction models for AF may improve predictive accuracy, with the ΔC-indexes ranging from 0.010 to 0.060.

IN PRACTICE:

“The significance of NT-proBNP in enhancing AF risk stratification deserves greater attention, with potential expansion to routine health screening,” the authors wrote.

SOURCE:

The study was led by Wanyue Wang, Department of Epidemiology, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China, and was published online on December 06, 2024, in Heart.

LIMITATIONS:

Significant heterogeneity was observed in this meta-analysis, with the subgroup articles only providing exploratory and indicative findings. Due to the observational nature of this study, residual confounding could not be excluded. None of the prospective studies included differentiated subtypes of AF, such as paroxysmal and asymptomatic forms, which might have influenced the observed outcomes.

DISCLOSURES:

This study was supported by grants from the National Key Research and Development Program of China, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences, National Natural Science Foundation of China, and National High Level Hospital Clinical Research Funding. The authors declared no conflicts of interest.

This article was created using several editorial tools, including AI, as part of the process. Human editors reviewed this content before publication.