Parkinson’s Prevalence Projected to Double Globally by 2050

TOPLINE:

Global prevalence of Parkinson’s disease (PD) is estimated to reach 25.2 million cases by 2050, marking a 112% increase from 2021, a new study showed.

METHODOLOGY:

• Data were used from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 to estimate age-, sex-, and year-specific prevalence of PD in 195 countries and territories from 2022 to 2050.
• Location-, age-, and sex-stratified prevalence was estimated.
• Researchers assessed relative contributors to the increase in the number of cases of PD between 2021 and 2050, including population growth, population aging, and changes in prevalence.

TAKEAWAY:

• Globally, the number of cases of PD in 2050 was estimated to be 25.2 million (95% uncertainty interval, 21.7-30.1), representing a 112% increase from 2021.
• Population aging was projected to be the major contributor (89%) to increasing cases of PD from 2021 to 2050, followed by population growth (20%) and changes in prevalence (3%).
• Countries in the middle fifth of the sociodemographic index were projected to have the highest jump in both all-age prevalence (144%) and age-standardized prevalence (91%).
• China was predicted to have the highest number of PD cases in 2050 (10.5 million), followed by India (2.8 million) and the United States (0.9 million).

IN PRACTICE:

“An urgent need exists for future research to focus on the development of novel drugs, gene engineering techniques, and cell replacement therapies that are aimed at modifying the course of the disease and improving patients’ quality of life,” the investigators wrote.

Tobias Kurth, Institute of Public Health, Charité — Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany, and colleagues of an accompanying editorial, published online on March 05, noted that prevalence extrapolation, used in this study to estimate future PD cases, may underestimate future prevalence. They argued that an illness-death model, which accounts for transitions from one disease stage to another, would offer a more accurate estimate. “As Parkinson’s disease cases are expected to rise sharply, adopting rigorous modelling techniques is essential to guide resource allocation, inform policy decisions, and advance research efforts,” they wrote.

SOURCE:

The study, led by Dongning Su, Beijing Tiantan Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China, was published online March 05 in The BMJ.

LIMITATIONS:

The model relied on the sociodemographic index and demographic factors as data on other risk factors were limited. Uncertainty remained regarding the lag effects of risk factors, and data scarcity in some regions may have skewed the global estimates. Ethnic and genetic variations were not accounted for due to the lack of relevant data. The diagnostic criteria may have influenced prevalence estimates, and the effects of incidence, mortality, and spatial autocorrelation were not directly considered. Additionally, the effect of COVID-19 on PD prevalence was only indirectly assessed.

DISCLOSURES:

The study was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China. The investigators and editorialists reported having no potential conflicts of interest.

This article was created using several editorial tools, including AI, as part of the process. Human editors reviewed this content before publication.