Slowing UK Cancer Gains Risk Widening Survival Gap

Cancer survival rates in the UK have improved significantly over the past 50 years, but the pace of progress has slowed sharply in the past decade, a study funded by Cancer Research UK (CRUK) has found. 

Survival for all cancers combined has doubled since the 1970s. However, the rate of improvement is now less than a third of what it was in the early 2000s.

The study found the largest recorded gap in 10-year survival rates between cancer types — a difference of 92 percentage points. Ten-year survival is 97% for testicular cancer but under 5% for pancreatic cancer.

The UK already ranks poorly internationally for cancer survival. A Nuffield Trust report published last year showed that 5-year survival rates for breast cancer in the UK are lower than those in most areas of the world, including France, Japan, Australia, and the US. For colon and cervical cancers, a similar picture emerged. 

UK Lags Behind Europe

An analysis last year by Macmillan Cancer Support found that UK survival rates for several common cancers were comparable to those seen in Sweden and Norway more than two decades ago.

Macmillan described cancer care in the UK as “overwhelmed, understaffed, and underfunded” and unable to keep up with rising demand.

Study Spans 50 Years of Data

The new analysis, led by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine and published in The Lancet Regional Health – Europe, examined nearly 50 years of anonymised cancer registry data from England and Wales.

Researchers estimated net survival rates for 10,769,854 adults diagnosed with a first primary invasive cancer between 1971 and 2018, with follow-up to 2019. The cancer survival index CSI was calculated at 1, 5, 7, and 10 years after diagnosis.

The 10-year survival rate for all cancers combined rose from 23.7% in the 1970s to 49.8% in 2018. However, progress slowed after 2010. Between 2000 and 2001 and 2005 to 2006, 10-year survival rose by 4%. Ten years later, the increase was just 1.4%.

Survival Gap Widens

Screening programmes for cancers such as breast, bowel, and cervical cancer have driven major improvements in survival. However, outcomes for harder-to-detect cancers have barely changed.

For oesophageal, stomach, lung, and brain cancer, survival remains below 20% and has scarcely improved in 50 years. Pancreatic cancer has a 10-year survival rate of just 4.3%.

“Survival for the most lethal cancers has hardly improved at all,” the researchers noted.

Progress for Some Cancers ‘Never Got Going’

Michelle Mitchell, CRUK’s chief executive, said: “Most patients today are far more likely to survive their cancer than at any point in the past. But the reality is that this progress is slowing — and for some cancers, it never got going in the first place.”

CRUK urged the government to use the forthcoming National Cancer Plan for England to cut waiting times, improve early diagnosis, and invest in research.

The charity warned that the proportion of cancers diagnosed at an early stage in England has not increased since 2013. It called for a full rollout of lung cancer screening in England by 2029.

Dr Sheena Meredith is an established medical writer, editor, and consultant in healthcare communications, with extensive experience writing for medical professionals and the general public. She is qualified in medicine and in law and medical ethics.