UK Life Expectancy Up but Below Previous Projections

New data from the Office for National Statistics shows that people born in the UK today are expected to live longer than previous generations. However, projected life expectancy for children born in 2023 is more than 5 years less than previously estimated, according to health experts. 

According to the latest figures, girls born in 2023 can expect to live on average to age 90 years, while boys have a projected lifespan of 86.7 years. 

For children born in 2047, life expectancy is expected to rise to 92.2 years for girls and 89.3 years for boys. This would mark an increase of 2.2 years and 2.6 years, respectively, from 2023 levels.

Longevity for Older Adults

People aged 65 years in 2023 are projected to live a further 22.5 years for women (87.5 years total) and 19.8 years for men (84.6 years total). By 2047, these figures are expected to increase to 24.4 years for women (89.4 years) and 21.8 years for men (86.8 years).

ONS analyst Kerry Gadsdon noted that the life expectancy gap between the sexes has been narrowing over the past  4 decades. She attributed this to lifestyle improvements, including a “reduction in smoking rates and the working conditions of men over several decades, as well as advances in healthcare”. The gender gap is expected to narrow further to 2.5 years by 2072, Gadson said in a statistical bulletin. 

More Centenarians Expected

The ONS data projects that more than one in six girls (17.9%) and one in nine boys (17.5%) born in 2023 will live to be at least 100 years old. 

By 2047, nearly a quarter of girls (24.7%) and more than one in six boys (17.3%) are expected to reach their 100^th birthday. 

Life Expectancy Below Previous Estimates 

Despite overall increases in longevity, current life expectancy projections are lower than previously expected.

The figures were described as “deeply concerning” by Anna Gazzillo, senior analytical manager at the Health Foundation. “Based on the data release, girls born in 2023 are expected to live to 90 years and boys to 86.7 years. This is 5.5 and 5.6 years lower, respectively, than what was expected based on projections made in 2010,” she said in a statement. 

Gazzillo added that “the downward revision to expected lifespans largely reflects a longstanding trend of slowing improvements to mortality rates over the decade prior to the pandemic”.

The Health Foundation called for a focus on health prevention measures throughout all public services to ensure that people can live longer in good health. 

“This will require concerted cross-government action on policy areas beyond the NHS and social care that are vital for people’s health, such as housing, education, and employment,” Gazillo said.

Siobhan Harris is an experienced health, medical and news journalist. She works in broadcast media and online.