Where the Physician Shortage is Headed — and What It Means

The shortage of physicians in the United States isn’t a new phenomenon. Unfortunately, it is also one that isn’t expected to disappear anytime soon.

“I would say the nation’s need for physicians is significant, and that’s not going to change,” said Michael Dill, MA, director of Workforce Studies for the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC).

In fact, demand is expected to outstrip supply for the foreseeable future. The latest prediction: The shortfall of physicians could reach as high as 86,000 by the year 2036, according to a 2024 report from the AAMC.

A Shortage Across All Physician Specialties

The shortage is widespread across all specialties, including primary care and nonprimary care, according to the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis, which released its most recent physician workforce projections in November 2024. The report forecasted that 31 out of 35 physician specialties would have shortages by the year 2037.

For example, the specialties that are projected to have the greatest shortages by 2037 include:

Vascular surgery (36% shortage)

Thoracic surgery (34%)

Other specialists (32%)

Ophthalmology ( 32%)

Family medicine (27%)

Plastic surgery (26%).

The shortages of various types of physicians will be worse in nonmetro areas, according to the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis. Rural areas are already affected by the workforce shortages, according to Brock Slabach, MPH, FACHE, chief operating officer of the National Rural Health Association.

“Without doubt, any primary care specialty is in high demand,” he said.

The Implications of an Ongoing Shortage

Physicians in areas already affected by shortages are bracing for the impact.

For example, certain subspecialties in ophthalmology, including neuro-ophthalmology, pediatric ophthalmology, and uveitis, are already experiencing a workforce shortage, said Michael X. Repka, MD, president of the American Academy of Ophthalmology. This could be exacerbated, as the demand for medical eye care is expected to increase whereas the number of ophthalmologists is expected to decrease.

One major contributing factor to the shortage: Physician burnout. According to a 2024 survey from the Physicians Foundation, 6 out of 10 physicians and residents reported experiencing burnout often.

Time pressures, reimbursement challenges, chaotic work environments, and low control over the chaos are all factors that drive physician burnout, as the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality has documented. Physicians who are burned out are more likely to leave the practice of medicine, which further exacerbates the shortage and reduces patients’ access to care.

Burnout is particularly a concern for OB/GYNs, according to Amy VanBlaricom, MD, chief clinical officer at Ob Hospitalist Group. When OB/GYNs leave the field, it often leads to the closure of labor and delivery units, leaving patients without access to care, particularly in rural and underserved areas.

Burnout isn’t just for practicing physicians, either. The Physicians Foundation survey also found that 7 out of 10 medical students reporting that they often experience signs of burnout.

Burnout and work-life balance are already on the minds of younger physicians, according to Mikalyn Defoor, MD, chair of the American Academy of Orthopaedic Surgeons’ Resident Assembly. “We’re more in tune to burnout and what our social situation looks like around work and how to have work-life balance,” she said. “I think folks are paying a lot more attention to that.”

More Residency Spaces to Open Up

The expansion of training program slots to prepare more physicians to join the workforce is one bright spot.

Congress voted to expand Medicare support for graduate medical education (GME) in 2021 and 2023 with appropriations legislation, adding a total of 1200 new residency training slots to receive Medicare support — the first such expansion since a cap was created in 1997.

However, that’s only one part of the solution to addressing the workforce shortage. Even with additional GME funding, it will take years for the people who fill those slots to be fully trained physicians, ready to practice.

“It’s not that I don’t want them. We’d love more radiology residents,” said Eric Rubin, MD, chair of the American College of Radiology’s Commission on Human Resources.

But the process to get enough medical students trained to produce a meaningful critical mass could take a decade or longer, Rubin explained. The number of radiology residents coming out of training is relative stable but it’s not enough to keep up with the “massively increasing volume of imaging studies” and the number of radiologists expected to retire in the next few years. So other solutions, such as the judicious use of artificial intelligence, should be considered, too.

Advice for Medical Students

Some medical students might be tempted to pick a specialty based on workforce numbers, hoping to guarantee themselves future job security. But some practicing physicians advise medical students contemplating their career path not to specifically choose their specialty based on current or predicted shortages.

“You want to do something you are passionate about, at the end of the day,” said Scott Hollenbeck, MD, president of the American Society of Plastic Surgeons. “I wouldn’t necessarily make a decision based on a forecasted shortage or excess.”

He continued, “Find something that resonates with you, and if you do, you’ll be successful.”

Gary Price, MD, president of the Physicians Foundation, agreed, “Medicine is really hard work, and you need to pick an area that you know you will enjoy.”

Defoor had always wanted to be an orthopedic surgeon, so she didn’t let the workforce shortages deter her from choosing this specialty. “That wasn’t even something that was on my radar,” said Defoor, who is currently in her final year of residency, with plans for a fellowship afterward.

But some suggest that medical students shouldn’t ignore the potential implications of the shortage, either. At this point, everyone, including medical students, should pay attention to the shortage and its repercussions because it’s not going away.

“Is it possible that we could get to a future where the shortage is not as bad?” Dill said. “Yes. Are we likely to get to a position where we don’t need more physicians than we’ve got? It’s hard to imagine that future.”

In the meantime, medical students can stay engaged and keep an eye on legislation and proposed policy changes that may affect their training — and the future physician workforce supply, said Leonard Marquez, senior director for government relations and legislative advocacy for the AAMC.

For example, the AAMC will support the Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act if and when it gets reintroduced in Congress.

“Yes, I think there is legislation coming in the next few months,” said Marquez. “What happens to it is to be determined.”